€5 for lattes anyone?
A Basket of Pain: The Numbers Don't Lie
A simple basket of 25 everyday items, costing €87.06 in 2022, now totals a staggering €115.93. This means, on average, an annual grocery bill of €6,028, compared to €4,527 three years ago—a 33% increase. Every item has seen a price hike from Brennan's bread to Cadbury chocolate, milk, and even fish fingers. This isn't a rollercoaster ride with ups and downs; it's a consistent upward trajectory.
| 1. Brennan’s bread 800g (white) | €1.99 | €1.87 | €0.12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Avonmore milk 2 Litre | €2.69 | €1.99 | €0.70 |
| 3. Denny sausages 454g | €3.89 | €2.69 | €1.20 |
| 4. Cadbury Dairymilk 110g | €2.50 | €1.49 | €1.01 |
| 5. Knorr stock cubes 224g | €3.75 | €3.29 | €0.46 |
| 6. Coca-Cola | €4.00 | €2.65 | €1.35 |
| 7. Heinz beans 4-pack | €5.50 | €3.50 | €2.00 |
| 8. Birds Eye fish fingers 10-pack 280g | €3.99 | €3.50 | €0.49 |
| 9. Strawberries 1kg | €11.75 | €9.96 | €1.79 |
| 10. Nescafé coffee 200g | €7.15 | €6.50 | €0.65 |
| 11. Six eggs 6 free-range | €1.95 | €1.59 | €0.36 |
| 12. Barry’s Gold blend tea 80 teabags 250g | €4.09 | €3.60 | €0.49 |
| 13. Chicken breasts 1kg | €10.99 | €4.99 | €6.00 |
| 14. Sirloin steak 1kg | €13.64 | €10.66 | €2.98 |
| 15. Carrots 1kg | €1.25 | €0.88 | €0.37 |
| 16. Rooster potatoes 1kg | €1.90 | €0.99 | €0.91 |
| 17. Onions 1kg | €1.29 | €0.59 | €0.70 |
| 18. Flora sunflower oil 2 litres | €8.98 | €7.99 | €0.99 |
| 19. Green Isle frozen peas 450g | €2.00 | €1.60 | €0.40 |
| 20. Kerrygold 454g | €4.95 | €3.75 | €1.20 |
| 21. Kelloggs Cornflakes 1kg | €4.99 | €4.39 | €0.60 |
| 22. Own brand milk 2 litre | €2.45 | €1.69 | €0.76 |
| 23. Own brand butter | €3.79 | €2.49 | €1.30 |
| 24. Barilla spaghetti 1kg | €5.00 | €3.42 | €1.58 |
| 25. Own brand pasta | €1.45 | €0.99 | €0.46 |
| TOTAL | €115.93 | €87.06 | €28.87 |
The "New Paradigm": No Return to Old Prices
Damian O’Reilly, a retail management lecturer at TU Dublin, warns of a "new paradigm." We shouldn't expect prices to revert to 2021 levels. While grocery inflation has slowed to 3.7%, according to Kantar Worldpanel, this is on top of previous sharp increases, not a replacement for them. A €200 weekly grocery bill in 2021 might now be €240, adding over €2,000 annually to household expenses.
Vulnerability and Changing Shopping Habits
O’Reilly categorises Irish consumers into three groups: those who can afford expenses, those just managing, and those struggling. Over 50% are vulnerable to food price inflation. This vulnerability is driving frugal shopping, with consumers buying per meal to minimise waste. Discounted product sales have surged by 11.6%, and promotions now account for 23.9% of sales.
The Own-Brand Boom
A significant shift is the rise of own-brand or private label products. Once accounting for less than 20% of shopping trolleys, they now make up around 50%. Consumers are drawn to the improved quality and prices, up to 30% lower than brand-name equivalents.
Global Trends and Local Impacts
The situation isn't unique to Ireland. Price hikes are a global phenomenon, with European averages exceeding Ireland’s 33% increase. Factors like the war in Ukraine, global commodity prices, and climate change are contributing to this surge. Even with the CCPC clearing Irish supermarkets of price gouging, the impact of rising input costs for farmers, energy, labour, and fuel remains.
The Climate Crisis: A Hidden Driver
The climate crisis is playing a significant role. Droughts affecting durum wheat production and storms impacting vegetable supplies are driving up prices. The shift of cocoa and coffee bean growers to higher altitudes is also adding to the cost of those products. O’Reilly predicts €5 lattes and shrinkflation in chocolate products.
Consumer Sentiment and Government Response
Consumer sentiment remains negative, exacerbated by rising fuel, healthcare, and utility costs. The government’s limited cost-of-living support is adding to the gloom.
Source: The Irish Times, 31 March 2025: Cost of living: ‘You are going to see €5 lattes in Ireland by the end of the year’